Part VII 

Political Dynamics 

Unconsidered aspects of the past become interesting in the light of the changing present. 

(P.F. Lazarsfeld.) 

We do not know what words mean, but we rule the people with them. 

(Benjamin Disraeli.) 
Chapter 34 Public Opinion 

The basic distinction between the modern and earlier States lies in the influence and effect of public opinion and the part which propaganda plays today. In all States of the past public%opinion was unknown, but the modern State is at once a master and a servant of public opinion and propaganda. A democracy is a government by public opinion. Nature of Public Opinion: 

What is an Opinion? In order to understand public opinion, we must first know what an individual opinion is, for in some way or another public opinion is a resultant of individual opinions. An individual opinion may be defined as the expressed idea or attitude of an individual on an issue confronting the group of which he or she is a member. Expression is necessary, for an unexpressed idea or attitude cannot be an opinion. But here arises the first problem about opinion formation. On certain occasions even unexpressed or silent opinions can have great affect of public opinion. Moreover, individual opinion may be positive or negative, for or against the issue in question. Further, an individual’s opinion is likely to change over time, when his or her experience, knowledge, or age environment changes. What is more, the opinions of no two individuals are absolutely alike, because the environment, experience, and knowledge of no two individuals are the same, even if they live under the one and the same roof. Lastly, though not in the least, an individual’s opinion may be at first vague and indefinite. But it may become more precise, definite and stable after some time, long or short, when he or she is pressed by the urgency of the situation or problem, and/or by the alertness of his or her mind, experience or knowledge. 

Now the problem is: How do the opinions of many individuals, sometimes millions of -people change or are transformed into public opinion? This question has occupied the attention, and even baffled the minds of innumerable thinkers, philosophers, sociologists, political scientists, Statesmen and researchers for more than two centuries. The question is at once important but difficult. It may be said, and rightly,  that public opinion is the sum of individual opinions on an issue. But, then, it is noted that it is more than merely sum of individual opinions, because sometimes it acquires a force and vitality unconnected with any specific individual. For example, the word ”Pakistan” was only an idea, an opinion, 
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of an unknown student, Ch. Rahmat Ali, in 1937. But in a matter of ten years, it became a tremendous popular force, now called ”Pakistan Movement.” The well-known German sociologist, Ferdinand Tonnies, said, ”Whatever may come to be considered a public opinion, it confronts the individual with an opinion which is in part an extraneous power.” Another author has explained it as a crystallization process, which is, as he says, ”the transformation of individual attitudes into a collectivity can exert influence”. Sometimes this transformation is so dramatic and revolutionary that we may characterise it as ”the genie in the bottle effect”. As the children’s story-book tells us, there was a genie that was kept by his master in a bottle. But when his master let him out of the bottle it loomed so large over him that he was frightened. The same thing happens in history and politics at certain times. The observation of the crowd behaviour seems to confirm the existence of some psychic entity that may seize hold of many individuals at once and lead them to behave in ways that no one of them would have behaved under other circumstances. In some situations, this kind of collective behaviour of public opinion sweep way powerful governments or dictators, as for example the overthrow of Ayyub Khan’s government in 1969 or of Mr. Bhutto’s government in 1977 in Pakistan, or of General No Win in 1988 after he had ruled Burma for more than a quarter of century. Public opinion also manifests itself in more peaceful but effective manner, as for example the overthrow of Winston Churchill’s government in the general elections of 1946 in Great Britain, although he was the saviour of his country in the ’World War 11 (1939-45). Hence it is asked, why there are sudden and radical shifts in public opinion and therefore in the governments and their policies and how to avoid them, especially in a democracy? To put it differently, how to organise public opinion so as to avoid sudden shifts and changes in it. This question is particularly important for the new nations or developing countries, which ire sometimes bedevilled by them. 

Public opinion grows out of a great variety and diversity of the views, beliefs, ideas and prejudices of the myriads of individuals or citizens d a State, when they think and want to do something in common. In their 

everyday life, they think, feel and act differently, and diversely, even 

divergently. But when required to think and act in common under the 

influence of a leader or an event, they may create a unity or uniformity of 

belief, opinion and behaviour. This is the Public Opinion. 

Definition: 

Lord Bryce defines it thus: Public Opinion is ”the aggregate of the 

inews men hold regarding matters that affect or interest the community. 

Ilbus understood, it is a congeries of all sorts of discrepant notions, beliefs, 

ejudices, aspirations. It is confused, incoherent, amorphous, varying from 

ay to day and week to week, But in the midst of this diversity and 
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confusion every question, as it rises into importance, is subjected to a process of consolidation and clarification until there emerge and take definite shape certain views or sets of interconnected views, each held and advocated in common by bodies of citizens.” V.O. Key, an American behavioural political scientist, defines public opinion as ”those opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed.” Unexpressed or silently-held opinions do not become public opinion. Instead, publicly expressed opinions become so, and more so if expressed with conviction and intensity. Generally more attention is given to informed opinion, and to the views of expert, interested or elite groups because of their particular abilities, influence or experience. 

We may define public opinion as the collection of individual opinions on an issue of public interest, which can exercise influence over individual group and government behaviour or policy, formed under the influence of or communicated by a leader, party, or group. 

In short, public opinion needs four things: individual opinions + a public issue + communication media + relationship of influence between leaders and the led. Harold Lasswell called the influencing leaders as the influential. Public Opinion or Majority Opinion. 

Generally speaking, public opinion is a majority opinion. At least. it must become so, if it is to be the effective and ruling opinion. But neither in its formation nor in its nature is it necessarily a majority opinion. ”Public opinion is not the name of a something, but a classification of a number of some things.” As we said above, it arises from a welter of several minority opinions struggling for acceptance by the bulk of the people but even if it is accepted by the majority, it may not be yet a public opinion. Majorit 

opinion is public opinion only when it aims at the common good an satisfies the general interests and well-being of the whole nation and embodies the willing consent of the minority or minorities in the nation. k is aptly remarked by a political scientist that ”a majority is not enough far public opinion, and unanimity is not required, but the opinion must be suck that while a minority may not share it, they feel bound by the convictior and not by fear to accept it.” In other words, it must be based or intelligence, educated opinion, and consent of all, and not on ignorance et 

this majority or fear and coercion of the minority. A true public opinion ix. therefore, one which is prompted with due regard to public welfare. It ress 

on weighing the facts of the case. It must be acceptable to the minority nal 

out of fear but willing acceptance of the common good, in which it also has a share. Unanimity is thus not necessary to public opinion; what is essentat 

is the common good or national welfare at which it must aim. A minoropinion can become public opinion, if it aims at common good. Willoughb. has rightly said, In any community of men that which has assumed the 
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character of public opinion is the result not of the opinion of all is members but only of those persons, few or many, who are led to think and to form judgments regarding matters of general interest.” Two kinds of Public opinion; Political and Social: 

Public opinion is not merely political: it can also be social. Social opinion is concerned with matters of social importance, in which political leaders and governments have little or no influence, except in totalitarian or ideological States. Social opinion can be seen in fads and fashion, which often spread so far and so suddenly over whole or part of a society. It is, for example, expressed by public attitudes towards the film stars. It is also frequently formed or organised by commercial firms, enterprises or corporations, by advertisement or publicity campaigns, e.g. for the sale of a new brand of soap by a film star. In Political Science, however, we are not concerned with social opinion. Our field of study is political (public) pinion only. Characteristics of Public Opinion: We may now sum up main features of public opinion: 

1.         Living issues of politics: 

Public opinion is always about living issues or politics in this country, which divide the people into various groups or parties with differing opinions. They deal with matters which are controversial or 3ebatable in the society 

Non-identifiable group: For opinions to be ’public’, it is not necessary for the people to be :n face-to-face contact with each other. What is necessary is that they hold the same opinion, even though they do not know each other. The ”opinion” rs held by a collection of people linked by common opinions or desires. 3.          Widely-held opinions: 

As we have said above, public opinion is not necessarily majority ciyinion or unanimous opinion. Minority opinion may carry more weight, if E is expressed effectively at times when the rest of the people are divided or 

attathetic towards the specific issue in question. 

Pooling of differing opinions: 

Arithmetic of public opinion is very strange. It is not the sum-total 

kpf all the opinions. Some people are indifferent and apathetic to political 

!issues and have no opinion. Others hold widely different opinions, some 

id opinions more firmly and continuously, while others not so. But no 

lion is held the same permanently. We do not hold opinions on very 

!.. Indeed, there are as many ”publics” as there are opinions. But out of 

welter of opinions may emerge a public opinion on an issue which 

ct or particularly interest the people. 
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5.         Intensity of opinions: 

The question is: Which of the differing opinions emerge to become the public opinion? It depends upon the intensity of the opinions held by various groups or ”publics”. If a group of people holds opinion more intensely and strongly than another group, it will become public opinion, even though it may be a smaller group than the other. Public opinion is the opinion of the dominant group in the society, whether it is due to wealth, education, official position, prestige or influence. Generally, more weight is given to express opinions than to unexpressed ones. 6.         Informed opinion: 

Generally more attention is given to informed rather than uninformed opinion. This is the reason why the views of the elite group or groups influence and form public opinion more effectively than those of the common people. It is due to their particular abilities, education, organisation and experience. 7.         Continuity and Change in Public Opinion: 

Public opinion may change from time to time, or may remain the same. More often than not, public opinion tends to persist over time. But 

conditions may arise in which it may change. The elements of persistence, 

continuity and stability of public opinion or of its change and 1 transformation are religion, ideology, nationalism, racialism, as well as 

1 modernity, rationality, secularism, science and technology, education, 

industrial development, national interests, and individual’s character and personality. On the whole, religion, ideology, nationalism, and racialism 

tend to make public opinion more stable and persistent, while modernity,’ 

rationality, secularism, science and technology, industrial developmenq 

urbanization and education tend to change it. If the change factors are ma 

influential  or dominant in the society, public opinion/will tend to chant 

rapidly and continuously. But if the stability and continuity factors are mc 

dominant, it will remain the same. 

Dynamics of Public Opinion. 

Public Opinion is not a grand total of the opinions, views 

beliefs etc., of all the individuals. This is impossible, ”It is”, as Profess 

Soltau writes, ”usually the adoption by the greater part of the population 

a point of view, of a policy, ideal or prejudice, put forward by 

interested persons or groups, using the various methods of dissemination i 

propaganda at their disposal—press, books, public meeting, 

advertising and especially communication from person to person. Usua 

Public Opinion begins as the opinion of a minority or a small group 

persons. It issues vaguely, hesitatingly, imperceptibly it is opposed by rival opinions of several other minority group opinions. At first, 

majority of the population are indifferent to the conflicting opinions of 1 
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minority groups, for few people .are really interested in politics and in matters of common concern. So there is at first not one public opinion but several public opinions, each struggling to win the majority of the nation to its own way of thinking. When most people accept one of the several competing minority opinions, it becomes the public opinion or majority opinion, unanimity not being of this world. ”Some currents of opinions or sentiments”, writes Lord Bryce, ”develop more strength than others, because they have behind them larger numbers or more intensity of conviction; and when one is evidently the strongest, it begins to be called public Opinion par excellence being taken to embody the views supposed to be held by the bulk of the people,” Thus arises Public Opinion not as a simple arithmetical addition of myriads of individual opinions in a nation but as a result of many social and political forces of propaganda and pressure, which seek to win the majority, of the people and influence the policies of the government. This is the way how popular government is possible, that is, government by public discussion and consent. It is only then that the general will arises. How is Public Opinion formed? 

According to Lord Bryce, three classes of persons have to do with the making of public opinion. They may be described as the thinkers, propagators and the mass of people. 

Public Leaders and Thinkers. They are the men who seriously occupy themselves with public 

affairs and devote their lives mostly, if not wholly, to the study and solution of public affairs and national problems. They are either professional politicians, legislators, journalists or are otherwise actively engaged in politics, or are private citizens who care enough for their duty as citizens to 

give constant attention to what passes in the political world. Their number is 

isrnall which, is indeed, an exceedingly small percentage of the voting 

iz,ens. But their importance is great. It is they who make public opinion, 

I its thinkers and originators. They are public leaders. They know the facts. 

ey think out, marshal and set forth, by word of mouth or pen, the 

Iments meant to influence the public. They use the press, platform and 

agencies of public opinion to communicate their views and opinions 

others. In modern democracies, in general, and in countries like the 

,.A., in particular, these makers of public opinion are the powerful 

nised interests, institutions, and corporations who manufacture public 

lion like any other commodity. As there are various kinds of leaders and 

aket.s, there is a variety of different and opposite opinions. 

Propagators and Moulders of Public Opinion. The second class consists of those who also take interest in They read the daily newspapers and political literature; listen to 
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public speeches and to the radio broadcasts and TV telecast, and give close and unremitting attention to public questions from day to day. They form judgment upon the facts and arguments presented to them. Their judgment corrects and modifies the views of the first class. Thus they become, though not the originators, but certainly the moulders and propagators of public opinion. Most of the persons of this class belong to a party, but they are generally not partisans. They are ready to listen to the views and opinions of other parties and consider fairly both sides of the question. Owing to their impartiality and non-partisan spirit, they become the real makers of public opinion. The worth and value of public opinion really depends upon the honesty, public spirit, impartiality, political intelligence and sound judgment of this class of persons. The number and quality of this class decides the quality and effectiveness of public opinion. What they think and feel is the opinion of the nation as a whole. It is Public Opinion at its best_ To this class belong the  members and workers of the various parties, the pressure groups, and the lesser interests and institutions in the nation, and 

all those who are interested in polities. (3)        Masses of People. 

The third class includes all the remaining masses of people who are generally indifferent to public affairs, reading little and thinking less] 

about them. So far as they have any opinion, they simply borrow or adopt i 

from the first two classes or from the place or social class to which 

belong. Men of this type will now and then be attracted by the personalit: 

of a leader or fascinated by a movement. They will follow him or it, nct I 

because they understand his or its politics but because they like some of I 

or its qualities or because they are sentimentally attached to his personality] 

or movement. This large group neither makes opinion as thinkers, nor heir 

to mould it as critics, but it swells its volume by its numbers. The actual 

of this group varies from country to country, but it is everywhere very larg 

By far the largest majority of the people of a State belongs to this class. fill 

democracy, it is at least as large as the electorate. Importance of Public Opinion in Modern States. 

In modern States in general and in the democracies in partic 

all power springs from the people. But the question is: How are the ; 

to exercise its power? In the popular and representative governments, 

possible in two ways only, viz., by voting and by the expression of pu 

opinion. Elections are no doubt indispensable for the working 

democratic popular government. But they must be preceded and pre 

by the action of the public opinion. Moreover, in the intervals between 

elections, it keeps the party-in-power in check, guides the government in 

making of its policies, and restrains the party government from abusir 

power and from becoming oppressive or tyrannical. When a minis 

legislature knows that the public opinion is opposed to their policy or 
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they will pause before adopting or enforcing it. They will give up unpopular plans or purposes. Vox populi, vox Dei. Public opinion is the pulse of the people and a wise government must always keep its fingers on the pulse, if it is to remain popular and responsible to the people. Good and sound public opinion will support a government when it is on the right path and restrain and criticise it when it is in the wrong. It is rightly said that alert and intelligent public opinion is the first essential condition for the success of democracy. It is a watchdog of the government and administration. It has been aptly said that the true function of public opinion is to bring about a proper relation between the legal and the political sovereign. It thus makes ideal democracy a reality. 

Public opinion may suffer from various drawbacks. In the nineteenth century liberal democrats usually believed that man was rational, interested in politics and capable of making logical decisions based on his needs. Moreover, it is believed that freedom to express ideas in open competition with others is the best means of correcting errors in bias. Though each party may plead its own cause, it is expected that the truth or the most practical answer will eventually emerge. In actual fact, however, people do not act rationally. Possibly, they fall an easy prey to the ”hidden persuaders” of political-propaganda agencies, public relation firms, and of the advertisers. Opinions are often formed by family environment, cultural influences and experiences. Opinions of the individual are, as often as not, 

highly irrational. This is the reason why public opinion has been accused of being erratic, inconsistent and conservative. In backward countries and nations, public opinion is influenced, sometimes openly and at times not so openly, by foreign sources. This is done through propaganda, which is one 

of the most potent sources of influencing public opinion. 1 Dangers of Public Opinion. 

If public opinion is ill-informed, unintelligent, prejudiced and 

’misguided, it becomes a great threat to the strength, stability and unity of the democratic State. Then the watchdog of democracy becomes the mad 

I,dog of tyranny. Under a dictatorship, it becomes an instrument of violence 

an d intimidation. The dictator bans all parties except his own; he controls 

tall the agencies of public opinion and propaganda, while the people are 

enied the rights and freedoms of speech, press, association and public 

eting. He indoctrinates the public mind and thus manufactures public 

pinion in his own favour. When public opinion is made and influenced by 

norance, prejudice, parochialism, and petty hatreds, class antagonism, and 

sted interests, it ceases to be public. Then the voice of the people is no Iger the voice of God, but becomes the voice Satan. Another source of 

fluting the spring of public opinion are the frustrations, maladjustments 

such other mental and moral aberrations of the otherwise normal 

ividuals. They prevent them from thinking and reacting rationally and 
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properly to the public problems and issues, especially in times of storms and strains of modern life and in the national emergencies and crises. Conditions of Sound Public Opinion. 

.      Both the importance and dangers of public opinion in the modern State make it necessary for us to consider the conditions which are essential for the creation of a sound, wise and intelligent public opinion. They are as follows: 

1.          Education. In the making of a sound and intelligent public opinion, education of the citizens comes first. ”The education of the citizens” writes Laski, ”is the heart of the modern State” The citizens must be properly educated if they are to play their part well in the life of the community. An educated person is constructive, critical and interested in public affairs. An illiterate person is mostly guided by his blind passions or sentiments or is duped by demagogues and the like. But education should be free from such vices as prejudice, fanaticism, intolerance, obscurantism, etc. It must not be dominated by Church or religion and such other vested interests. 

2.          Free Press. Education takes a long time to influence public opinion, that is, when the boys, girls and the youth  have passed through the schools and colleges. But the public opinion is directly and immediately made and influenced by the press. Yet it is only free press that forms it on a sound and proper basis. Negatively speaking, a free press is one which is not controlled or subsidised by men of wealth, vested interests, or communal bodies, or by the government. Positively speaking, it means one which gives the public honest, impartial, free and untarnished news, views and reviews or information and is also free to criticise the news, 

views and reviews or information supplied by any other agency, private or governmental. When all arguments are voiced and criticised before the people, they will know how to choose the sound and reject the unsound 

ones. Thus the free press will help in the formation and expression of a sound public opinion. 

3. Free Discussion. Public opinion is the opinion of the , 

public. But before the public can form an opinion, it must have the freedom 

of discussing the pros and cons of problem. Public discussion requires1 freedom of thought, opinion, speech, association, assembly and of othesi 

means of communication by press, and post, wire and wireless. Discussion] 

and expression of opinion may be face-to-face or through the press and] 

postal correspondence of through the medium of electric wires or radio: 

waves or of television. By free discussion and expression the pe 

communicate their wishes and opinions to the seat of government 

authority and also expose errors, correct mistakes and guide the policy 

public bodies and administration. 
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4.         Social Harmony. The citizens of a State must not be divided by irreconcilable differences of religion, culture or of commercial and ethnic loyalties. Where barriers of caste, creed, colour or class divide a people into different strata or compartments, there can be no ”public” in the proper sense of the word. In order to be a public, a population must possess community of interests and unity of tradition and outlook and must also agree on certain fundamental political doctrines. There should be a common way of life. There should be unity in diversity in their national life. 

5.         Economic Security. All the people in a State should enjoy a decent standard of life. They should have economic security by having a decent source of income. A nation divided into too rich and too poor classes cannot form a sound public opinion, for the poor classes will be exploited and controlled by the richer ones. They will have no means of expressing their opinion. A starving man has no opinion of his own. Hindrances in the way or Sound Public Opinion. 

We may now briefly describe those factors which hinder the -owth of sound public opinion. They are, firstly, illiteracy or lack of education. An illiterate person does not possess sufficient information and knowledge to understand the problems of his State or take interest in public affairs. He is ignorant and apathetic, while his mind is filled with ?fejudices, narrow sympathies and sentiments. Hence he  lacks a sound opinion of his own. Secondly, economic inequality is another great hindrance to the formation of sound public opinion; a poor man has no time or leisure to devote his thoughts to public matters. Thirdly, deep-seated religious and sectarian differences are great obstacles to the formation of a 

;Toper and sound public opinion. Fourthly, dishonest press which provides 

[false and mischievous information pollutes the spring of public opinion at 

very source. The press should not be used to deceive the public or to 

er the interests of any selfish group. Fifthly, the unwillingness of 

rioninorities to acquiesce in the majority rule will obstruct the proper 

ression of public opinion. Sixthly, presence of selfish leaders and 

rupulous pressure groups, devoted to the vested interests of the 

althier classes, will mislead the people and prevent the formation of 

.    .           . nd public opinion. 

w to ascertain Public Opinion. 

One can ascertain public opinion by: (1) reading newspapers, (2) 

ring public speeches, (3) scrutinising election results, (4) studying the 

rammes and plans of political parties, (5) conversing with friends, 

ighbours and other people about public affairs, (6) and by mixing with the 

ple in general to hear their views and reactions to political events and 

blems. As Lord Bryce says, public opinion can be ascertained by 

Mg freely about among all sorts and conditions of men and noting how 
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they are affected by the news or the arguments brought to their knowledge from day to day.” The Making of Public Opinion in Democracy and Dictatorship: 

The actual process of the formation of public opinion depends upon the constitutional and political structure of a State, whether it is democratic or dictatorial. 

In a democracy the process of opinion formation is highly complex. It begins at different levels of intellectual and political life when it is confronted with various kinds of living issues and problems with which the country is faced both of the internal and of international nature. The general public is more often than not uninterested in them, excepting those which are of interest to the people in one way or the other. It is the political leaders of the parties, their supporters, collaborators and other leading members who are interested or involved in them. But they are always divided into two or more parties and leaders, who take differing views of the political issues and problems. There are also various interests or pressure groups, who have, however, vested interests in solving the issues and problems in their own way. Their aim is not public discussion of them but to put pressure on the government or lesser authorities and also on the various political parties and leaders to accept their interests or solutions as national interests by these political decision and policy makers. The various political panics and leaders are opinion-makers directly or indirectly and their supporters, collaborators and other leading members are transmitters and communicators of the opinions and policies adopted by their leaders. All the political parties and their leaders, whether supported by interest or 

pressure groups or not, go to the people in their millions and offer them their views and solutions of the political issues and problems and their 

policies. They arouse the popular interest in them, form their opinions co them and seek their support for their solutions and policies in order to win 

their votes at the time of elections. In this whole process, which lasts for 1 

years, decades and generations, especially in between two elections, the 

various party leaders, their supporters, collaborators and their parts 

members and sympathisers communicate their party views on national and 

international matters to the people through their party and other newspapers. 

1 

magazines, make speeches on public platform, and talks on radio and television, or through books, booklets, posters, and by all other means and 

methods of private and public communication and propaganda. 

In all these activities, the political leaders, politicians, pa 

members and other publicists are really communicators of opinions of i 

various kinds of publics or points of view. Very few of them are origina 

of these opinions. They really begin with views, theories, philosophies ; 

writings of the intellectual classes or intelligentsia who are interested 

politics directly or indirectly, such as philosophers, thinkers, writ, 
PUBLIC OPINION    521 

lawyers, jurists, professors of social, biological and natural sciences, especially of Political Science and of its various divisions and sub-fields, as well as the views, comments, reviews and discussions of the editors, commentators, correspondents, article-writers, reviewers and others of the various newspapers, magazines and general and specialist journals. The political leaders and leading workers of the political parties, the politicians and all other political activists of various parties adopt these views, theories, philosophies, and points of view which are acceptable to their political parties and their party platform, while other leaders and parties adopt the opposite theories, philosophies, views and points of view. There may, of course, be some creative political leaders or activists who may present a new or more original solution or views or theories or adoptions of the views and theories and philosophies of the academic and non-academic thinkers, writers and philosophers. Most of the political leaders are, however, not originators but adopters and communicators of the views and theories and philosophies of the intellectual classes, both within and outside the colleges and universities. But being practitioners of politics, they are better communicators than the political thinkers, philosophers or writers, including the journalists and editors, although they are much nearer the practical politics than are the academic writers, thinkers and professors. 

These are the multifarious sources of political thought, views and theories and philosophies, when adopted by the political leaders, activists and parties, which influence the people or the various publics into which the people are divided. They thus become opinion-leaders and opinion-makers, but of as many colours and hues as there are parties and leaders active in politics. Now all this is possible in a democracy. It is because civil liberties and fundamental rights are granted to the leaders and to the general public. There is ebb and tide in the politics of a democracy, which corresponds to the holding of general elections. After an election, public opinion is usually dispersed and diverse,  for there are as many opinions as there are groups of opinion-holders on an issue confronting the country and therefore as many publics. But when the government and opposition parties begin to propagate their opinions, the various opinions begin to coalesce; diversity begins to decrease and more and more crystallise onto two or more focal points. At fast, near the general elections, a majority or dominant public opinion emerges under the leadership of the government or the opposition party. At this time, the public opinion is at its peak, formed around the victorious party, whether the old ruling or new one. It is in this way that democracy tecomes a government by public opinion. After the elections, public opinion disperses again into several opinions and publics till the time of the mext elections. 

Nothing reveals   the   difference   between   democracy   and dictatorship more than the way public opinion is formed and carries weight 
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in them. The very first thing a dictator does is to deprive the people of all the means and sources of forming public opinion in an independent and autonomous manner. All parties are banned, their leaders arrested and jailed or otherwise silenced or driven out of the country. Only the dictator’s party remains in country if there is one at all. In Pakistan, for instance, the military dictators did not have even their own party. Similarly, no writer, thinker or philosopher is allowed to write or say anything. All newspapers, magazines and the like are closed: only the dictator’s own newspaper or newspapers, etc., are available to the people. Radio, television and all other means of communication, information and propaganda are under his control. No citizen is allowed to form any association, publish any newspaper or magazine, or hold public meetings. People are also denied all civil liberties and even fundamental rights. The dictator is himself the opinion—maker. What he says or does is public opinion. No elections are held. If any one is at all held, it is rigidly controlled by the dictator. He or his party puts up candidates. The people have no choice but to cast vote in favour of the government nominees. Thus the elections also are instruments of expression of the dictator’s opinion, and policies. The people have no voice in making of the government policies. 

AGENCIES INFLUENCING PUBLIC OPINION Agencies for the formation and expression of public opinion: 

In recent years, much attention has been paid to the study of the methods and means of influencing public mind, both in politics and in business. The agencies moulding and expressing public opinion are the following: 1.         Family and other primary groups. 

Family and other groups of immediate relationship, such as friendly or neighbourhood groups, and occupation groups are the first and very powerful influences in helping to form an individual opinions and ideas. These influences constitute his or her personal experience, which may last all his or her life. 2.         Educational Institutions. 

Educational Institutions, like schools, colleges, universities, debating societies and the like are also some of the oldest means of forming public opinion. Education is no doubt a slow-moving process: it takes nearly twenty years to educate a boy or a girl, but its effects are lasting and lifelong. The views and attitudes formed by the instruction and knowledge 

imparted in schools and colleges, last as long as one lives. As the educated j 

people are the elite of the nation and its intellectual leaders, their views andli opinions become the opinion of the nation. They make and express public 

opinion as its originators, critics and moulders. Almost all the leaders 

public mind come from the educated sections of the nation, 
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intelligentsia, as they are called. A good educational system makes the citizens intelligent and enlightened, patriotic and freedom-loving. 3.          Radio, Television and Cinema. 

The most modern and in some respects the most effective methods of forming, influencing and expressing public opinion are the radio, the cinema and now also, in many countries, the television. While the newspapers can be read by the educated only and the public speeches can be heard by those who are actually present at the meeting, the radio and the television can reach millions in their homes and hearths in the remotest corners of the country and even beyond. The cinema also reaches not only the millions but impresses them most effectively, for man is really a picturethinking animal: and he believes what he sees. The television combines the merits of the radio and the cinema; it is really a telecast cinema and has proved itself  as the most effective instrument of popular education and propaganda. In fact, the modern art of mass propaganda and of manufacturing public opinion has become possible with the invention and use of these three agencies. Radio and television provide a great variety of information and knowledge. News are broadcast; radio and TV talks are given by experts in their own fields; feature programmes, dramas, music and other items of entertainment are presented to the listeners for their recreation and enjoyment; and learned discussions and speeches are made by scholars and writers on philosophy, science, politics, economics, arts and literature. Thus the radio and TV are both a source of education and recreation, knowledge and entertainment, information and publicity. They are also a link between the rulers and the ruled, for the Statesmen and government leaders can directly talk to the people over the radio or television. The dictators make speeches on the air and the rulers of the democratic States give fire-side chats’ to the radio-listeners. Radio and TV have one shortcoming: these are usually the monopoly of the government and in a dictatorship, are exclusively employed for the propaganda of the party in power. The cinema is also a source of entertainment and enlightenment. But it has also its dangers. Cheap, sexy, crime—filled and horror-creating films, mostly of American on Indian origin, are morally depraved and socially dangerous. These corrupt the youth, befog the minds of the grown-ups and titillate the baser instincts and impulses of all the 

picture-goers. The incidence of crime increases in direct proportion to the increase in their shows. Nevertheless, if the cinema is properly used, it can 

be a source of both pleasure and enlightenment. It can help a lot in the formation of a healthy public opinion. 

Ft The Press. 

It is one of the most important agencies for influencing and Epressing public opinion, especially the newspapers and, to a lesser extent, 

524      POLITICAL SCIENCE 

the periodicals and books. Newspapers influence public opinion by their editorials, their news and the method of presenting them, and by their views and comments on the news. Newspapers can easily mislead public opinion simply by suppressing or omitting certain kinds of news and by emphasising others or by presenting the facts in a distorted and unfair manner. Some newspapers endeavour to incite the baser elements and pander to the baser instincts of human nature by sensational and haterousing news and comments. They are called the ”yellow press”, which’ is a blot on our civilisation. Press must be honest, impartial and accurate. Above all the press must be free; it must not be a monopoly of the vested interests, or of the government. What we have said about the newspapers is still truer of the news agencies, since these are the primary sources of the news. If they distort or suppress news at the very source, opinion will be inevitably misled. 5.         Public Speeches or Platform. 

Platform or public speeches are another method of making and expressing public opinion. While the press is a modern device, the platform is the most ancient. It was practised by the ancient Greeks and Romans. Like conversation and canvassing, it is a method of face-to-face or personal propaganda. In this respect, it is far  more effective than the other agencies of indirect contact, like the press or  the radio broadcasts. Unlike the press. but like radio broadcasts, it reaches the uneducated as well. Spoken words have greater effect on the listeners than the printed words on the readers. But it has its limitations. It is effective only as far as the voice of a speaker can reach, which, of course, is not very far. Moreover, the effect and value of a speech depends upon the personality, ability and oratory of the speaker. Lastly, public opinion can be properly formed by public speeches ont. when the country enjoys the freedom of speech and association. Without these freedoms various parties and citizens cannot express their views and criticise those of their opponents and thus enlighten the public about the 

problems of the country and of the mistakes and shortcomings of the party- 

in-power. 6.            Political Parties. 

Political parties play the most important role in the formation and] 

expression of the public opinion. Indeed, a popular government 

inconceivable without them. They acquaint the people with all impor 

questions and problems facing the country. They create public interest in ; important matters of the day and thus shape the views of the people. Th 

conduct election campaigns and put up candidates to win the electic 

Above all, they organise public opinion, which is their most imp° 

function. 
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7.        Legislature.     . 

The legislature in the modern democratic State expresses and moulds public opinion by its debates and discussions. Every legislative body has an opposition party or parties. Both the government and opposition parties express their views and opinions on the floor of the house which are reported in the daily press. The public outside takes interest in these debates and are influenced by these views and opinions. Thus parliamentary debates become a source of expressing and moulding public opinion. 

8.          Government and Public Opinion. 

Governments also play an important role in determining public opinion. Here lies the real difference between the democratic and autocratic or dictatorial governments. While the dictator controls public opinion, the democratic government guides it. The dictator shapes public opinion, while the democrat shares it with the public. In the last analysis, public opinion cannot be controlled, but the dictator or autocrat tries to do so as far as possible. In the democracy, on the contrary, government has to share with the public in the making of public opinion, which it does in two ways: 

(a)        By guiding and educating the public: 

Plato said, ’To rule is to educate”. Democratic government does so by guiding the public in matters of public or national importance and by educating public opinion by furnishing the people with necessary information and facts regarding them. (b)        By securing public support for its policies: 

Democratic government tries to secure the support of the public by putting before it relevant facts about its policies and by suggesting means and methods to realise them. Press conferences, television interviews, public speeches and press releases are some of the means by which the government explains its policies to the public and thus influence its opinion. If a government fails to do so, it is likely to be defeated at the next elections. Quantitative Measurement of Public Opinion or Opinion Polls: 

All modern governments seek to measure public opinion. Purposes 

are several. The main purpose is to enable the governments to formulate their domestic and foreign policies on the issue confronting them or their countries in the light of the opinion polls results. It is particularly true of 

democratic governments. They should measure public opinion in advance ler elections lest they should suffer defeat at the elections. The non- 

aocratic governments also do so for the purpose of controlling or 

’guiding public opinion. In democratic countries even political parties and 
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Ii 

leaders measure public opinion in order to anticipate the results of the next elections. Moreover, both in democracy and dictatorship, their enemies or opponents, especially foreign governments and parties carefully study public opinion polls with a view to judge and influence the, chances or likelihood of opposition, revolt or revolution in the target States Furthermore, newspapers, magazines, pressure or interest groups and academicians like the professors of Political Science, statisticians, researcher.’, and propagandists of all colour and hue try to measure public opinion in their own and foreign countries. Lastly, commercial firms, corporations, banks and marketing societies and associations also study and measure public opinion for marketing their goods, to judge consumer preferences and for other commercial purposes. Philosophy of Opinion Polls: 

Public opinion is formed of individual opinions which differ from individual to individual. We can measure public opinion by counting the individuals holding different opinions. Estimation has to be made of the number of opinions which are held on the issue under study, the number of people supporting each view, and the extent of influence or the intensity of the opinions of these people. By intensity is  meant the extent to which the opinion-holders might be ready to back up their opinions by resorting to effective action or pressure on the government, such as by resorting to some sort of protest, when their opinions are neglected, which may range from strikes, protest meeting, processions, to revolt and revolution, to press their 

views if disregarded by the government or the men in power. We may take 

a normal example of a community in which people hold different opinions; h 

some are conservatives, others liberals and still others socialists. We can ’1 

measure the strength of the three types of opinions by counting them b-: 

means of an opinion poll. It will show us that the number of conservativ: opinion-holders is, say, about 20%, that of the socialist opinion-holder.: 50%, and of the liberal opinion-holders is 30%-. Now, by measuring tilt proportion of various opinion-holders we will know beforehand the votinz behaviour of these people at the time of election, if it is contested by three 

parties. Thus opinion surveys enable us to forecast election results 

advance. However, in one-party elections, as under a dictator or auto 

including even the so-called partyless elections, there is no need for opinia 

polls, for election results are a foregone conclusion: the dictator will alwaj 

get, say 99% votes. 

Methods of Measuring Public Opinion: 

Since about 1930, opinion polls have been conducted in vane 

ways. Ideally, the best method is to count the different views of the who 

people altogether. But it is impracticable, for it is too costly in money 
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527 

time.55 The usual method is to collect the views of a selected number of persons, which is called a sample, while the people or population from which the sample is chosen is called ’universe”. For reasons of accuracy of the opinion polls, the sample is so chosen that it is representative of or proportionate to the views of the various groups and parties among the opinion-holders or citizens, called respondents or interviewers. The views are obtained from the replies or responses of the respondents by the interviewers according to the questions, the list of which, called questionnaire, is already prepared by the organisers of the public polls, called pollsters. The views thus collected are known as opinion data, or simply data. Inferences are drawn from the data by the pollsters regarding the distribution of opinions among the people, the ”universe”, and forecasts are made about the probable results of the coming elections and, therefore, about the success or defeat of the various leaders and parties in the elections. This whole process of collecting views or opinion data and of drawing inference and making forecasts about future trends in the coming elections is called opinion polls or public opinion surveys. Time methods: 

There are old and new methods of undertaking opinion polls, which are divided into three kinds: accidental sampling, quota sampling and random sampling. 

We shall first give a few examples of accidental method of opinion polls. This method was first used by newspapers, magazines or radio broadcasters to obtain information on such questions as how many people read a given newspaper or magazine or listen to the radio. It was also employed by market researchers to find out what are the likes and dislikes of the people or buyers about various consumer goods. For this purpose, ballots are printed in newspapers or magazines, which could be clipped and returned to the poll researchers. This method is still used by newspapers in Pakistan to assess the views of the people on some issues, either public or concerning the newspapers in question. Ballots can also be left in shops and stores, from where they are collected by the pollsters. Yet another interesting method was to collect the opinions of the crowds on the roads, Ws-stands or in the railway trains at certain hours of the day. The people in these places were interviewed, that is, question asked, and their opinions duly recorded by the interviewers. Postal Polls: 

More frequently, the ballots are sent to certain selected persons whose addresses have been found from telephone directories or from 

It may be possible in some future lime when electronic devices and computer technology are so developed that the whole people may press electronic buttons and the result may be shown or recorded on a display board. 
528       POLITICAL SCIENCE 

electoral registers of voters. The replies or responses of the respondents are then assessed to estimate public opinion. A well-known example is that of the American Literary Digest, which conducted postal polls for a long time in America from about 1916 till this method met a disastrous result in the 1936 American Presidential elections. It despatched about ten million ballots by mail to the selected people and received about two and half million  responses on the basis of which it predicted the victory of London, one of the Presidential Candidates. Instead, Franklin Roosevelt, another candidate, won the election by about twenty percent lead, predicted by another researcher, called Gallop poll. The Gallop poll used a new method, known as quota sampling. The real defect of the Literary Digest was that its method of choosing sample was not representative, as was done by the Gal lop Poll. 

Quota Sampling: 

This method was used before 1950 in estimating opinion polls. The quota sample means the fixed number of people, who are usually chosen from electoral registers. Care is taken to choose them in such a way as to be 

representative of the people according to their class, age, sex, etc., proportionately to the whole population or electorate. For instance, the interviewers selected every tenth house in the streets of the area to be surveyed. This method was used by the Gallop poll in the 1936 presidential j 

elections, in which it correctly predicted President Roosevelt’s success. Random sampling: 

It is a more recent method of choosing a sample. It is done in suchl 

a way that theoretically every individual has an equal chance of being] 

selected. This method may be compared to a big box in which the ball 

papers of the whole electorate are put and thoroughly shaken and then, say.] 

2000 of them are taken out at random to assess public opinion. The 

technique is to take names and addresses from the electoral regis 

randomly by mechanical or numerical technique, to which the interviev 

put the questions already prepared. These interviews may be rep 

several times so as to assess over time the views of the interviews 

respondents more properly and realistically. In recent times, tele 

interviews are also undertaken. They prove to be quicker and cheaper I 

the usual face-to-face interviews of the people, with the interviewers , 

personally to the houses of the interviews, usually in the evening when , 

members of the family are present at home. Drawbacks of Opinion Polls: 

Although they try to make opinion polls by the quota or 

sampling to be as representative of the public opinion as possible, yet 

may suffer from some drawbacks. Firstly, it is not necessary that 

may actually vote according to the opinion they have expressed tc 
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529 

interviewers. The opinion of an individual may change at the time of casting his or her vote in the elections from what he or she’ has told the interviewers. Secondly, the answers given to the interviewers provide no clear guide about the intensity of the opinions held. These defects can however, be remedied by undertaking repeated interviews and by preparing the samples carefully. 

Methods of influencing Public Opinion. We have considered several agencies and forces which form and express public opinion. Each one of these agencies employs methods of influencing it. Two of these methods are propaganda and pressure groups. We shall discuss them in the next chapters.