Program: M.Sc
Course Code STAT6226
Credit Hours 3 CR
Course Coordinator Qasim Ramzan
Introduction
This course will introduce the basic concept to a set of quantitative methods for reaching optimal decisions. A solvable decision problem must be capable of being tightly formulated in terms of initial conditions and choices or courses of action, with their consequences. In general, such consequences are not known with certainty but are expressed as a set of probabilistic outcomes. An optimal decision, following the logic of the theory, is one that maximizes the expected utility. Thus, the ideal of decision theory.
Pre requisites: 
Learning outcomes
Textbooks
Week 
Topics 
Books 
1 
The nature and concepts of loss functions 
Statistical Decision Theory & Bayesian Analysis.(57), 
2 
parameters, decisions and sample spaces. 
Statistical Decision Theory & Bayesian Analysis.(812), 
3 
Risk and average loss. 
Statistical Decision Theory & Bayesian Analysis.(5557), 
4 
Admissibility and the class of admissible decisions. 
Statistical Decision Theory & Bayesian Analysis.(111117), 
5 
Minimax principle and its application to simple decision problems 
Statistical Decision Theory & Bayesian Analysis.(122126), 
7 
linear and quadratic losses and their uses in problem of estimation and testing hypothesis. 
Statistical Decision Theory & Bayesian Analysis.(502507), 
8 
Asymptotically minimax procedure. 
Assignment 
9 
A prior distribution and conjugate priors. 
Statistical Decision Theory & Bayesian Analysis.(313317), 
10 
Bayes’ decision procedure 
Statistical Decision Theory & Bayesian Analysis.(323329), 
11 
admissibility of Bayes’ and minimax procedure. 
Statistical Decision Theory & Bayesian Analysis.(350361), 
12 
Risk and average loss using software 
Mathematica Software 
13 
Bayes’ decision procedure using software 
Mathematica Software 
14 
Risk and average loss using software 
R Software 
Bayes’ decision procedure using software 
R Software 

16 
Risk and average loss using software 
Assignment 
Description of system of Evaluation
Exam: Mid (30%), Final (50%), Sessional (20%): Assignments, Presentations, Class Participation, Quizzes
Time Table:
